PLAYBOOK MONITORS
Every monitorable indicator from the Capital Flows playbook library — 12 playbooks · 180 indicators · 152 tracked daily.
definitions updated 2026-07-13 · live data as of 2026-07-14 22:31 UTC
ACTIVE ZONE ALERTS · 3
CREDIT CYCLE PLAYBOOK
OPEN PDFCredit & Inflation Regime dashboard →Signal Monitor (credit-cycle signals) →The macroeconomic framework of Capital Flows: every asset embeds two risks — duration risk (purchasing power over time, driven by inflation) and credit risk (nominal repayment, driven by growth). Fixed income and FX are the 'first responder' markets where macro prices first, then transmits outward along the risk curve to equities, commodities, and alternatives. The credit/liquidity cycle alternates expansion (spread tightening, capital rotating out the risk curve) and contraction (spread blowouts, deleveraging, flight to quality), with reflexivity making both self-reinforcing. The tail scenario: central banks lose control of long-end yields and FX simultaneously, repricing everything at once. Practice: watch spreads, curves, volatility, FX, and issuance as an early-warning dashboard, and pre-wire threshold-based contingency plans.
AI SYNTHESIS
claude-opus-4-8 · data as of 2026-07-14Late expansion / euphoria with a subtle credit-caution undertone — mostly matches this playbook's "Euphoria / late-cycle" regime, not clean Goldilocks.
Today's dashboard reads as late-cycle complacency with one or two amber lights, not a clean Goldilocks. HY OAS at 2.69% sits in the playbook's own "very tight — euphoria/complacency" zone (flat on the day, only +1.13% on the month), VIX at 16.64 and MOVE at 69.55 are both low and falling (-5.88% and -5.95% MoM) — exactly the "persistently low vol, spreads too tight vs history" signature the playbook flags as credit risk underpriced. The caution flag is IG OAS at 0.78%, up +6.85% on the month — the playbook explicitly says IG spreads "creeping up over weeks" warns credit is deteriorating before HY blows out, though the absolute level is still benign. The 10Y-2Y curve is positive at 0.36% (well clear of the inversion trigger) but has flattened -10% on the month with the 2Y (+1.94% MoM) rising faster than the 10Y (+0.22%) — a mild bear-flattening/late-cycle tilt. CPI YoY at 3.46% is above the 1-2% Goldilocks band and the stock-bond correlation at 0.4461 sits in the playbook's "positive — 60/40 hedge broken" zone, so bonds are a degraded hedge even as no risk-off is underway. The 10Y at 4.56% is nowhere near the ~5% loss-of-control threshold, USD (100.7), USD/JPY (161.9), stress index (-0.72, below zero) and S&P (7539, +1.45% MoM) all confirm no active contraction — this is the pre-turn window, not the turn.
CONDITIONAL ACTIONS
While HY OAS stays pinned near 2.69% with VIX sub-17, treat this as the playbook's euphoria window: favor upgrading quality and liquidity and keeping cheap tail hedges rather than adding leveraged/most-speculative risk here.
MEDIUMbasis: HY OAS 2.69% in 'very tight — euphoria/complacency' zone; VIX 16.64 and MOVE 69.55 both falling MoM.
If IG OAS keeps creeping up from 0.78% over the coming weeks (it is already +6.85% MoM) while HY stays tight, treat it as early credit deterioration and trim the most credit-sensitive/leveraged sleeve exposure ahead of any HY move.
MEDIUMbasis: IG OAS 0.78%, +6.85% 1m; playbook rule that IG creep warns before HY blows out.
If HY OAS jumps ~100bp in a short window OR the 10Y-2Y curve (now +0.36%) inverts, begin shifting allocation toward quality/defensives per the explicit threshold alarms — not yet triggered today.
HIGHbasis: HY OAS +100bp rule and explicit '10y-2y inverts, start shifting' rule; curve +0.36% and flattening -10% MoM but still positive.
With stock-bond correlation positive at 0.4461 and CPI at 3.46% (above 1-2%), lean on gold, TIPS or option protection rather than Treasuries as the equity hedge, since the playbook says bonds are a broken diversifier in this state.
MEDIUMbasis: Stock-bond corr 0.4461 in 'positive — 60/40 broken' zone; CPI YoY 3.46%; gold +2.44% on day.
Only escalate to the loss-of-control playbook if the 10Y (now 4.56%) breaks toward ~5% AND FX turns disorderly — neither condition is present, so no contingency execution today.
HIGHbasis: 10Y 4.56% vs ~5% threshold; USD 100.7, USD/JPY 161.9 both orderly; stress index -0.72 below zero.
CAVEATS
- ·Several key indicators are a few days stale (HY/IG OAS, curve, 10Y/2Y/real yield as of 07-10/07-13); CPI is as of 06-01 and Initial Claims 07-04, so the credit/inflation read lags today's date.
- ·Signals conflict: vol and HY spreads say euphoria/risk-on, but IG OAS creep, a flattening curve, above-target CPI (3.46%) and a broken stock-bond correlation inject genuine late-cycle caution — this is not a clean single regime.
- ·The St. Louis Fed stress index moved sharply (+17.82% MoM) but remains negative (-0.72); percentage change off a small base can mislead — the absolute level still signals no stress.
- ·Reference indicators (issuance health, interbank funding stress) have no live feed today, so a key first-contraction signal set is unobserved.
- ·Sigro's top-level call is GOLDILOCKS while this playbook's own indicators lean euphoria/late-cycle; the divergence itself is a reason for humility.
PORTFOLIO NOTE
The portfolio is overwhelmingly long high-beta, long-duration growth — software (CRWD, PANW, NET, DDOG, SNOW), chips (AMD, MRVL, ARM), data-centers, space names and small crypto (PURR) — precisely the far-right-of-the-risk-curve exposure that suffers most if the euphoria window turns; the playbook's late-cycle guidance to upgrade quality/liquidity and keep cheap hedges is directly relevant. The only real ballast is the small income sleeve (HDIV.TO, BKCC.TO), which is itself credit-sensitive and would be an early tell if IG spreads keep creeping. Nothing today demands action, but this book has essentially no defensive/hard-asset offset (no gold, no TIPS) to the positive stock-bond correlation the playbook flags.
AI-generated synthesis of this playbook's own framework against today's data — not the playbook's original text, and not investment advice. Verify before acting.
REGIMES
Expansion (risk-on)
Strong nominal growth, low defaults, spreads narrowing, heavy issuance, low vol; capital rotates outward (bills → bonds → HY → equities → alts).
OWN: Risk assets: equities, high-yield, cyclicals, EM; long duration fine while inflation sits at 1–2%.
Euphoria / late-cycle
Spreads too tight vs history, persistently low VIX, covenant-lite issuance, yield-chasing — credit risk underpriced.
OWN: Reduce leveraged exposure, upgrade quality and liquidity, build redundancy (cash buffers, put/CDS hedges) before the turn.
Contraction (risk-off)
Triggered by rising rates, growth stall, or disinflation from highs; spreads widen sharply (HY 300→600bp+ in months), issuance dries up, correlations go to 1.
OWN: Treasuries/T-bills, cash, gold, defensives, safe-haven FX (USD, JPY, CHF); shorten maturities, upgrade quality.
Trough / recovery
Weakest borrowers have defaulted, policy has eased aggressively, spreads peak and start narrowing; curve bull-steepens.
OWN: Add risk opportunistically — distressed credit and equities at fire-sale prices while others are forced sellers.
Stagflation cross-current
High inflation with weak growth raises BOTH duration and credit risk; stocks and bonds fall together (2022) — 60/40 fails.
OWN: Commodities, gold, TIPS, short-duration cash, value over growth, commodity producers.
Systemic: central bank loses control
Long-end yields blow out despite policy AND FX turns disorderly; inflation expectations unanchor; the 'Fed put' is gone.
OWN: Hard assets, safe/foreign currencies, short Treasuries, deep OTM puts, VIX calls, minimal leverage — 'he who loses the least, wins'.
LIVE INDICATORS · 21 tracked daily
High-Yield OAS
The primary barometer of credit risk appetite and cycle phase.
2.69 %
VERY TIGHT — EUPHORIA/COMPLACENCY
Δ +0.00%
1M +1.13%
252d 2.63 – 3.46
as of 2026-07-13
READ IT
HY OAS jumping ~100bp in a short window is an explicit warning; spreads doubling (300→600bp+) marks contraction; very tight vs history = complacency.
DO THIS
Sustained widening → de-risk, upgrade quality, hedge BEFORE equities react. Extreme blowout + policy response in place → rotate back into risk/distressed.
Investment-Grade OAS
The earlier, quieter tell of deteriorating credit conditions.
0.78 %
Δ +1.30%
1M +6.85%
252d 0.73 – 0.94
as of 2026-07-13
READ IT
IG spreads 'creeping up' over weeks warns credit is deteriorating before HY blows out.
DO THIS
Treat as early caution: trim leveraged/credit-sensitive exposure, raise quality.
Risk Appetite: HYG / LQD
Price-based proxy for capital rotating along the credit risk curve.
0.74 ratio
Δ -0.03%
1M +1.46%
252d 0.71 – 0.74
as of 2026-07-14
READ IT
Rising = yield-chasing risk-on rotation outward; falling sharply = flight to quality within credit.
DO THIS
Sustained breakdown → follow the rotation: upgrade quality, shorten maturities, raise cash.
10Y−2Y Curve
One of the strongest recession signals in the playbook.
0.40 %
Δ +11.11%
1M +2.56%
252d 0.27 – 0.74
as of 2026-07-14
READ IT
Explicit rule: 'if 10y−2y inverts, start shifting allocation.' Rapid steepening can flag inflation/fiscal fears; bull steepening from inverted = recession/cuts arriving.
DO THIS
On inversion: shift toward quality/defensives. On bull steepening: front-end bonds, then hunt distressed opportunities.
10Y Treasury Yield
Anchor of the duration-risk regime and the 'loss of control' tripwire.
4.62 %
Δ +1.32%
1M +3.82%
252d 3.97 – 4.67
as of 2026-07-13
READ IT
10Y breaking its long-term range or surging past ~5% with disorderly FX = central bank losing control of the long end — the biggest risk to US equities.
DO THIS
Execute the contingency plan: cut long equity/tight credit, raise cash, buy gold/inflation hedges, buy OTM index puts.
2Y Treasury Yield
Front-end gauge used to decompose curve moves.
4.26 %
Δ +1.19%
1M +5.19%
252d 3.38 – 4.26
as of 2026-07-13
READ IT
2Y surging faster than 10Y (bear flattening) = tightening squeeze, late cycle; 2Y plunging faster (bull steepening) = recession/crisis easing.
DO THIS
Bear flattening → reduce risk, watch near-term rollover borrowers. Bull steepening → own the front end, prep for distressed.
10Y Real Yield
Growth expectations and the gold driver.
2.36 %
Δ +1.72%
1M +9.26%
252d 1.67 – 2.36
as of 2026-07-13
READ IT
Gold shines when real yields are deeply negative; rising real yields pressure long-duration assets.
DO THIS
Deeply negative → hold gold/real assets. Sharply rising → shorten duration, trim growth stocks.
10Y Breakeven
Direct read on inflation expectations — duration risk itself.
2.25 %
Δ -0.44%
1M -2.60%
252d 2.18 – 2.50
as of 2026-07-14
READ IT
Stable 1–2% = Goldilocks for long duration; rising toward unanchoring flips the regime; 'expectations exploding upward' is part of the loss-of-control scenario.
DO THIS
Rising/unanchoring → short duration, commodities, TIPS, value; avoid long bonds and high-multiple growth.
VIX
Regime-change and complacency gauge with an explicit alarm level.
16.50
Δ -3.85%
1M -6.67%
252d 13.47 – 31.05
as of 2026-07-14
READ IT
Explicit threshold: 'VIX > 30, reevaluate positions'; persistently low VIX = late-expansion complacency.
DO THIS
Spike + spread widening → trim equities, raise cash/Treasuries; reverse once repricing and policy response land. In calm regimes keep cheap tail hedges.
MOVE Index
Bond vol — rising cross-asset volatility precedes dislocations.
75.03
Δ +7.88%
1M +8.04%
252d 55.77 – 115.02
as of 2026-07-14
READ IT
Equity + bond + FX vol rising together = precursor to dislocation or sentiment regime change.
DO THIS
Confirmed cross-asset vol rise → de-risk, check hedges, cut leverage.
US Dollar Index
Global risk-off / funding-stress signal.
100.94
Δ -0.33%
1M +1.19%
252d 96.22 – 101.61
as of 2026-07-14
READ IT
USD surge = risk-off episode / global stress; also foreshadows stress for EM dollar-debtors. Dollar up + commodities slipping + curve flattening + spreads widening = composite risk-off.
DO THIS
On the composite read: hedge before equities react; cut EM exposure.
Japanese Yen (USD/JPY)
Yen strength = carry unwind and risk aversion (strengthened in 2007 before the GFC hit equities).
162.22
Δ +0.21%
1M +1.25%
252d 146.35 – 162.63
as of 2026-07-14
READ IT
Rapid yen strengthening (USD/JPY falling) = early risk-off warning.
DO THIS
Abrupt yen appreciation → trim risk and carry-style exposure. Cross-referenced with the Signal Monitor yen board.
Swiss Franc (USD/CHF)
Second defensive currency; confirms risk-off when strong alongside USD/JPY.
0.81
Δ -0.01%
1M +1.87%
252d 0.76 – 0.81
as of 2026-07-14
READ IT
CHF strengthening alongside JPY confirms the risk-off rotation.
DO THIS
Use as confirmation; hold defensive-currency exposure as a crisis hedge.
St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index
Aggregate systemic-stress dashboard input.
-0.72
Δ +12.15%
1M +17.82%
252d -0.97 – 0.59
as of 2026-07-03
READ IT
Zero = normal; sustained rise above zero = building financial stress.
DO THIS
When it lights up: run the drill-down, tighten limits, verify liquidity reserves and hedges.
S&P 500
The lagging confirmation of what credit/FX signaled first — with an explicit alarm.
7,544
Δ +0.38%
1M +1.51%
252d 6,238.01 – 7,609.78
as of 2026-07-14
READ IT
Explicit rule: S&P falls >5% in a day → reevaluate all positions. Stocks and bonds falling together = inflation broke the 60/40 hedge.
DO THIS
On the alarm: reassess against the contingency plan; if stock-bond correlation flipped positive, hedge with gold/commodities/tail strategies instead of bonds.
Stock-Bond Correlation (63d)
Cross-asset regime check — in crises correlations go to 1; in inflation regimes bonds stop hedging stocks.
0.45 corr
POSITIVE — 60/40 HEDGE BROKEN
Δ -0.86%
1M -20.17%
252d -0.24 – 0.57
as of 2026-07-14
READ IT
Stocks and bonds falling together = the macro driver is inflation and traditional diversification is failing.
DO THIS
Positive correlation → replace bond hedges with gold, TIPS, defensive FX, or option protection.
Gold
'Central bank insurance' — rallies when trust in policy/fiat erodes and real yields are deeply negative.
4,057 $
Δ +1.51%
1M -3.74%
252d 3,293.20 – 5,318.40
as of 2026-07-14
READ IT
Skyrockets in loss-of-control/inflationary scenarios (1970s: $35 → $800).
DO THIS
Allocate when inflation runs hot, real yields are negative, or CB credibility is questioned.
Broad Commodities (DBC)
Inflation/growth read and stagflation hedge.
28.63 $
Δ +1.06%
1M +0.28%
252d 20.92 – 31.69
as of 2026-07-14
READ IT
Commodity slip + flattening curve = falling growth expectations; surge = inflationary hard-asset regime.
DO THIS
Inflation shocks → rotate into commodities/producers; weakness + widening spreads confirms risk-off.
3M T-Bill Yield (^IRX)
Bill yields collapsing toward zero = extreme flight-to-safety (late 2008).
3.70 %
Δ -0.75%
1M +2.27%
252d 3.51 – 4.25
as of 2026-07-14
READ IT
Near-zero bill yields on safe-haven demand = capital at the extreme left of the risk curve — peak fear.
DO THIS
Peak-fear readings mark the zone where contrarian risk-buying becomes attractive once policy responds.
CPI YoY (Duration Risk)
The direct duration-risk amplifier.
3.46 %
Δ -16.87%
1M +42.74%
252d 2.33 – 4.17
as of 2026-06-01
READ IT
Stable 1–2% = Goldilocks; 5%+ or oscillating = capital flees to shorter duration and real assets.
DO THIS
Accelerating → shorten duration, favor real assets/TIPS/value; decelerating with weak growth → extend duration.
Initial Claims (Credit Risk)
Growth drives credit risk; deteriorating claims end the credit party.
215,000 k
Δ -0.92%
1M +3.37%
252d 190,000.00 – 259,000.00
as of 2026-07-04
READ IT
Job growth slowing while spreads are still tight = pre-emptive de-risking window.
DO THIS
Deterioration with tight spreads → reduce credit and leveraged exposure before spreads catch up.
REFERENCE SIGNALS · no free daily feed — rules on hand
Primary-Market Issuance Health
'Issuance dries up' is one of the first contraction signals (2007 CLO freeze preceded the equity crash).
No free daily feed — track qualitatively; the credit-issuance pace signal on /signals holds the latest CFR-reported totals.
READ: Months with near-zero HY deals when there are normally many = investors have turned risk-averse.
DO: Issuance freeze = contraction confirmation: shift to quality/liquidity before the full equity impact.
Interbank Funding Stress
The plumbing spreads that blew out in 2007–08 before equities cracked.
TED rate was discontinued on FRED in 2022 — STLFSI4 above is the free aggregate proxy.
READ: Normally low and steady; a 2008-style blowout is an alarm of serious liquidity issues.
DO: On blowout: assume liquidity-crunch dynamics — raise liquidity, avoid leverage, expect CB intervention.
CHECKLISTS & PROCESS
Core risk-management loop
- ·1. Redundancy plan — pre-build liquidity reserves, hedges, backup funding, and position sizes that survive extreme moves.
- ·2. Monitor flows — systematic daily/weekly review of spreads, curves, VIX/MOVE, FX, issuance, stress indices.
- ·3. Dynamically adjust — de-risk when signals worsen, re-risk opportunistically after repricing and policy response.
Threshold alarms (explicitly cited)
- ·S&P 500 falls >5% in a day → reevaluate all positions.
- ·VIX > 30 → reevaluate positions.
- ·10Y−2Y curve inverts → start shifting allocation.
- ·HY OAS +100bp in a short window → credit deteriorating, de-risk.
- ·10Y yield breaks above its long-term range AND FX vol doubles → execute the loss-of-control contingency plan.
Composite risk-off read
- ·HY spreads creeping up for weeks.
- ·Yield curve flattening markedly.
- ·Dollar strengthening.
- ·Commodity prices slipping.
- ·→ Growth expectations falling + credit risk rising: reduce risk / hedge BEFORE equities react.
Fed-losing-control playbook (7 steps)
- ·1. Immediately cut long equity and tight-credit positions; raise cash.
- ·2. Move a significant portion into inflation hedges: gold, some oil exposure.
- ·3. Short US Treasuries and rate-sensitive tech.
- ·4. Buy deep OTM equity index puts.
- ·5. Park cash in a stable foreign currency or short-term TIPS.
- ·6. Watch policymakers — reassess on a radical response.
- ·7. Stay nimble; size to survive 10% daily swings.