CREDIT & INFLATION REGIME DASHBOARD

Credit & Inflation Regime

LIVE — FRED

Updated Tue, 14 Jul 2026 22:30:14 GMT · last obs 2026-07-13

AI SYNTHESIS

claude-opus-4-8

GOLDILOCKS regime holds (day 29) as both credit and inflation momentum tick negative

The dashboard classifies the current regime as GOLDILOCKS, now 29 days in, driven by inflation rate-of-change of -30 bps and a mild credit ROC of -5 bps over the 60-day lookback — disinflation without credit stress. Historically GOLDILOCKS is a minority state (116 days, 20.6% of the sample across 15 occurrences), while REFLATION dominates (207 days, 36.8%) and RECESSION is the second-most common (153 days, 27.2%), so this benign backdrop is neither rare nor the base case. Housing data as of 2026-07-14 corroborates the calm-credit read: mortgage delinquencies sit at 1.89%, below the 2.21% long-run average and far under the 8.35% GFC peak. However, affordability is stretched — the 30y mortgage rate is 6.49% against a 5.06% 30y Treasury (143 bps spread), a 2.02% real 2y yield, and a $2,065 estimated monthly payment. Supply looks tight-to-normal at 4.6 months versus the 5.2-month average (and 1.6-month low), with starts at 1,177k SAAR lagging permits at 1,410k.

CONDITIONAL ACTIONS

Treat GOLDILOCKS as a tentative, minority regime: it has held only 29 days and inflation ROC (-30 bps) is doing most of the work while credit ROC is barely negative (-5 bps); if credit ROC turns materially more negative it would tip the read toward RECESSION, historically 27.2% of days.

MEDIUM

basis: current_regime GOLDILOCKS, days_in_regime 29, inflation_roc_bps -30, credit_roc_bps -5, RECESSION pct 27.2

Watch the 143 bps mortgage-Treasury spread and 6.49% mortgage rate: if starts (1,177k SAAR) keep lagging permits (1,410k) while months-supply stays tight at 4.6 vs 5.2 avg, it signals supply-constrained rather than demand-driven housing weakness.

MEDIUM

basis: spread_bps 143, mortgage_rate_30y 6.49, starts_saar 1177, permits_saar 1410, months_supply 4.6 vs avg 5.2

Credit-stress tripwire: delinquency at 1.89% is below the 2.21% long-run average, so no distress signal now; a move above ~2.21% would mark deterioration back toward the long-run norm and warrant caution on credit-sensitive exposure.

HIGH

basis: delinquency_rate 1.89, delinquency_long_avg 2.21, delinquency_gfc_peak 8.35

CAVEATS

·Regime and ROC figures depend on the 60-day lookback window and an undisclosed classification model; the underlying credit and inflation indices/thresholds are not provided here.
·Housing snapshot is a single as-of date (2026-07-14) with no trend history shown, so directional inferences about starts/supply/delinquency are point-in-time.
·The 'est_monthly_payment' of $2,065 has no stated loan size or terms, limiting how it can be interpreted.
·Regime statistics cover a finite sample (562 total days) and past frequencies are not predictive of the next transition.

AI-generated synthesis of this page's own data — not investment advice. Verify before acting.

REGIME METHOD

CREDIT ROC LOOKBACK — 60d

INFLATION ROC LOOKBACK — 60d

CHART RANGE

CURRENT REGIME

Goldilocks

CREDIT ROC (60D)

-5.0 bps

INFLATION ROC (60D)

-30.0 bps

DAYS IN REGIME

BBB CREDIT SPREADS & 5Y BREAKEVEN INFLATION

Shading = regime · Blue = BBB OAS (left) · Aqua = 5Y Breakeven (right)

REGIME QUADRANT — CURRENT STATE

Inflation Rising →

← Inflation Falling

Spreads
Falling
(growth+)

Spreads
Rising
(growth−)

REFLATIONSpreads Falling
Inflation Rising

GOLDILOCKSSpreads Falling
Inflation FallingCURRENT

STAGFLATIONSpreads Rising
Inflation Rising

RECESSIONSpreads Rising
Inflation Falling

CURRENT POSITION — ROC SPACE

Credit ROC (x) vs Inflation ROC (y) · dot = current

GOLDILOCKS — PORTFOLIO IMPLICATIONS

Growth improving with easing inflation. Ideal for both stocks and bonds. Duration works; growth equities lead.

REGIME STATISTICS

REGIME	DAYS	% PERIOD	RUNS
Reflation	186	37.1%	9
Stagflation	86	17.1%	3
Goldilocks◀	92	18.3%	14
Recession	138	27.5%	8

HOUSING & REAL ESTATE

Mortgage rates, XLRE signals, supply pipeline, delinquency, and thesis.

VIEW DASHBOARD →

METHODOLOGY

Credit — ICE BofA BBB US Corporate OAS (FRED: BAMLC0A4CBBB)

Inflation — 5-Year Breakeven (FRED: T5YIE)

Regime logic: direction of rate-of-change over selected lookback. Credit rising + inflation rising → Stagflation · Credit falling + inflation rising → Reflation · Credit falling + inflation falling → Goldilocks · Credit rising + inflation falling → Recession